Our AI model, value framework, and staking logic — fully explained.
BetAI365 uses Google Gemini (2.5 Flash) as its reasoning engine, fed with live data from API-Football: fixtures, team form, head-to-head records, live odds, and injury reports. Every morning at 07:00 UTC the model analyses today's major-league fixtures and produces up to 6 high-confidence picks.
The model is instructed to prefer positive expected value over raw confidence — it will skip a 90%-confidence favourite if the bookmaker's odds leave no edge, and instead flag a 68%-confidence pick where the fair price is significantly better than market odds.
Team Form
Last 5–10 match results, home vs away form, goal difference trend.
xG Model
Expected goals from shots taken/conceded. Strips out luck from scorelines.
Home Advantage
Venue-specific stats. Home teams win ~46% of top-league matches.
H2H History
Head-to-head record for this fixture, weighted toward recent meetings.
Injury & Availability
Confirmed team news, key-player absences, estimated impact on probability.
Market Value
Comparing our probability to bookmaker implied odds to find positive EV.
Market Movement
Odds drift vs sharp-money shortening signals informed bet activity.
Weather
Rainfall, wind speed — affects high-scoring vs low-scoring outcomes.
Referee
Card and penalty rates per official. Affects Over/BTTS markets most.
Rest & Schedule
Days since last match, upcoming fixture load, cup vs league context.
Every pick includes an EV% computed as: EV% = (p × (odds − 1) − (1 − p)) × 100, where p is the AI's estimated probability and odds is the best available bookmaker price.
Skip. The bookmaker has an edge over our model.
Marginal edge. Small stake only.
Clear edge. Standard stake.
Strong edge. Larger stake.
Rare find. Maximum kelly fraction.
Recommended stake is the Kelly Criterion fraction: K% = (p × odds − 1) / (odds − 1). We display this as a percentage of your bankroll. We recommend using ¼ Kelly to reduce variance — full Kelly maximises long-run growth but produces large drawdowns.